I don’t have much to write today. I’m still working on an essay, so I’m using up my sports writing on that. I’m having a gingerbread latte from Dunkin Donuts. It doesn’t really taste like gingerbread, but I couldn’t tell you what it tastes like. It’s still pretty good. When I went to order it, I asked if they had it, and the woman immediately said, “No, not anymore”… until she realized I hadn’t actually asked for the Pumpkin Spice Latte, which is gone til November. Always trying to stay one step of the curve.
I just dropped 492 points on Edgar in Scrabulous.
We have a game in the office. It’s called the “Mega Bloks” game. Mega Bloks is a toy company, and at one point before I worked here, they sent these little Duplo-looking construction worker plastic dudes to us. They have a button that says “Mega Bloks” in their chest, and when you press it, it makes one of three noises: dude either says “Mega Bloks,” laughs or whistles. This led to the most obvious game of all time: predict what Mega Bloks guy will say. It’s a very difficult game, as the odds are exponentially bad at getting more than one. The record is 9, by Matt Lynch, the odds of which are 1 in 19,683. The best I’ve done is 7. I’ve failed many, many times. But the key here is we get dozens of games, nerf guns, videos etc., and the only thing that survives is the Mega Bloks game. It’s the best. In fact, I’m going to play right now.
I say Mega Bloks (I always start with Mega Bloks): Mega Bloks
I whistle: it whistles.
I whistle again: it laughs. And I lose.
It was that quick. I’ll admit, I was going off the board by picking 2 in a row. You have to be bold for that. It rarely happens, and why the 1 in 19,683 is probably not all that accurate. But it does happen. Okay, one more time.
Mega Bloks: Mega Bloks (in truth, I just wait until it says MB and start at one)
I understand. I’m actually surprised that it does switch up the order of the noises at all–I thought those things played in a loop.
but by “not likely,” I just meant that, as machines can’t provide true randomness (which is why a slot machine can be triggered), it’s impossible for the probability to match the empirical results on the long haul. But they’ll be damnnnnn close–so close that there’s no way you can doubt the 1/3 probability on a single attempt.
I don’t mean to be a dick, but you’re missing my point, which you inadvertently clarified in the first comment when you said the noises were not likely truly randomly distributed. That’s my point: it seems to happen less than it should, mathematically speaking.
my point is that you wrote “I’ll admit, I was going off the board by picking 2 in a row. You have to be bold for that. It rarely happens.” It actually happens exactly 11% of the time… not what I’d call rare. And the machine itself would play the same sound twice in a row a full 33% of the time. jerks.
With all the writers still on strike I was wondering if you could help me write this screenplay. It’s about Mike Vick in prison and the warden forces him to go up against the guards in a football game. I think “The Really Really Long Field” is a good title. Let me know if you’re down.
It would be better if it said Tom Brady.
I understand this.
If the three noises are actually, truly randomly distributed—which is not likely—then going two in a row makes as much sense as not going two in a row. Predicting a sequence, no matter what the sequence is, is equally difficult.